Breaking Down the Ultimate DFS Prize
Are you an aspiring fantasy football millionaire? Are you interested in improving your shot at a million dollars each week? By looking through each week’s millionaire maker lineups throughout the NFL season, you can gain insight into key strategies and how winning lineups are constructed.
The winning lineup in this week’s Millionaire maker was “Chalk” with a winning score of 301.8. He or she employed a standard strategy around maximizing value. There were also standard contrarian plays designed around one game in particular. All in all, a great effort, showing that anyone can win by hitting on a few key players and by playing the “chalk” as this individual did.
This week’s winning lineup will look different than future lineups, as salaries were on the low end to start the season. As the season goes on, it will be hard to get in the same amount of top tier talent employed within this lineup. The lineup along with notes for each position is as follows:
Ryan Fitzpatrick – 1.29% ownership – 45.28 points
Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ownership was stifled by recency bias and quite honestly may have been an oversight for the fantasy community at large. Although few expected the Buccaneers to compete, as they were the biggest underdog of the weekend, you could have reasonably assessed performance by looking back at Fitzpatrick’s past performances and seeing the connection he had last year with Mike Evans when he was called upon.
James Conner – 25.54% ownership - 38.20 points
A standard value play here. The salary was low based on expectation and workload. As the week progressed and it was clear Leveon Bell was not playing, along with weather factors that would have predicted a ground and pound game, Conner was a must start for even the occasional DFS player.
Alvin Kamara – 33.51% ownership - 46.10 points
“Chalk” clearly expected a shootout in this game, which would lead to you having Kamara in your lineup. He was the most efficient runner last year and carried it into this year. Even with only 8 carries, he still provided excellent value as he was targeted 12 times in the passing game leading to over 100 receiving yards on 9 catches.
Michael Thomas – 19.15% ownership - 42 points
Another play based on the idea of a shootout. Those familiar with DFS know Thomas as a high-volume receiver. Even the biggest homers may have been surprised with 16 catches on 17 targets. Each week he will be an elite play, and is cementing himself as one of the best in the league.
Mike Evans – 2.77% ownership – 30.70 points
Recency bias pushed ownership for Evans to what may have been his lowest in quite some time. Based on the fact that seemingly, Tampa Bay would be behind throughout the game, he should have been a clear play this week, but in hindsight vision is 20-20. The game script along with the connection that Evans had with Fitzpatrick should have made him a clear play for the week.
Desean Jackson - .88% ownership – 34.6 points
If you are going to win the Milly, plays like this are what is going to propel you to it. At .88% ownership this was an amazing play. Based on the fact that Lattimore would have been covering Evans throughout the game, it definitely opened up the deep game for Jackson in week 1.
Jordan Reed – 12.53% ownership – 14.80 points
Another value play here, as well as the idea of getting him in before he gets injured. Although Gronkowski may have provided more points, it was definitely difficult to fit him into lineups this week without sacrificing too much value.
Emmanuel Sanders – 18.2% owned – 32.50 points
If you watched preseason you knew there was a connection between Case Keenum and Emmanuel Sanders. Personally, he was one of my highest owned players last week, as it was clear the volume would be there for him. This was a great pick based on some solid observations throughout preseason.
Raven defense – 20.45% owned – 17 points
With the mess in Buffalo, the Ravens were the clear play. They were predicted to be the highest owned defense going into the week and finished at 20.45% ownership. It’s not often a defense that wins you a million dollars but picking the wrong one will certainly prevent you from winning. This was the safe pick, which is always a reasonable strategy.
All in all, this is an astounding lineup that beat the competition by 16.3 points. By employing tactics such as this for week 2 and beyond, you too may find yourself a fantasy football millionaire.
DFS and Redraft Specialist
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