Bring Down the House: How to Beat Vegas - Week 2

September 12, 2018

 

 

As often happens, week 1 in the NFL produced a lot of surprising results but we learned a few things. Mahomes came out firing even better than expected, the Saints defense may not be as good as we thought, and the Bears defense may be much better. Now that we've seen every in one whole week of action, we will attempt to correct at least a few seemingly incorrect assumptions.

Lock Pick of the Week

 

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – DEN -6 at EVEN

This line will definitely be more than -7 by Sunday. Derek Carr’s passing attack was almost nonexistent week 1. I don’t see that improving in week 2 against a stout defense that is on the other side of a competent and well-rounded offense. This game should end with Denver up 2-3 scores. Winning by a single touchdown should be easily attainable by the end of the first half.

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins – WAS -5.5 at -115

This is one to get in early as the line is likely to change to more than -7 by the end of the week. Luck is looking healthy but still not throwing deep. Alex Smith is once again going to be an underrated QB. The Redskins also have a big advantage on the defensive side of the ball. As long as that line stays under -7, I’m in.

 

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills – LAC -7.5 at -115

The Chargers need some redemption and what better team to get it from than the Bills. After watching Baltimore ravage Buffalo by 44 points, it would take a miracle for the Chargers to not end this game 2 scores up.

 

Underdog Plays

 

I like several underdog MLs this week. These pay well but are obviously riskier.

 

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – CAR +197

The Panthers has a weak secondary but the Atlanta play calling and Carolina defensive front should be enough to keep the Falcons out of the end zone for most of the game.

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers – KC +195

This is one time I’m not worried about the Big Ben home/away splits. Mahomes appears to be the real deal and Ben looked awful in general as well as dealing with at least a minor injury.

 

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets – MIA +130

The Jets made Matt Stafford look foolish out there Monday but unless they also know all of Miami’s signal calling as they apparently did with the Lions, I doubt we see a repeat from what should be an average defense at best to go along with a well below average offense. This one might not be an underdog play for long.

 

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – NYG +135

The Giants line may be arguably the worst in the league but with no offensive weapons in Dallas other than Zeke, this game is going to come down to scoring points and with OBJ and Barkley alone, that should be quite a bit easier than it was trying to score on the Jags defense.

 

I will be extremely surprised if less than two of these upsets happen. It's certainly worth a small bet on a parlay as well. You can’t win them all. Bet responsibly and good luck to us all!

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