EDP: April Expert Mock Draft #01
As you may know, for the past month and a half, as well as throughout the remainder of this offseason, we are compiling an ADP database called "EDP," or "Expert Draft Position." The idea is to generate an ADP data set that cuts out the average joe's information, instead sourcing directly from drafts involved exclusively with experts in this industry. As a part of this project we will publish a couple mocks per week, giving you more to digest than just the EDP numbers. A week ago we completed our first mock in the April EDP Series, and were joined by the following:
Robert Waziak (@WazNFL), the Editor-In-Chief of the Dynasty Trade Calculator and fantasy analyst for Pyromaniac.
Rob Schwarz Jr. (@ChiRuxinDFS), one of the writers for FantasyPros and Rotoviz
Shane Manila (@DFF_Shane), VP and Editor of DFF Dynasty and CoHost of the Dynasty Trades HQ Podcast.
John Laub (@GridironSchol91), one of the legends in this industry and main rankings guys + writer at Football Diehards.
Robert F Cowper (@RobertFCowper), the main man when it comes to rookie scouting at Reality Sports Online.
Chris Ransom (@DraftUtopia), owner of Draft Utopia.
Tyler Ghee (@F3Pod), owner and host of the Fantasy Football Franchise.
Ryan Cearfoss (@fntsyfbconnect), host of the Fantasy Football 24/7 Podcast, and a writer for Going for Two and Dominate Fantasy.
Brandon Ahart (@FntsyFxrRSO), one of the writers for Reality Sports Online.
Caleb Smith (@DFF_CSmith), one of the writers at DFF Dynasty.
Give it a read, we've all added blurbs to each pick from round 1-4, and as always:
Scoring Format: 12 Team .5 PPR with .075 Per Return Yard.
Starting Roster: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 3Flex
Let's get started.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State - @RonnieAEvans "Y A W N"
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU - @EricPlat2 "His warning to NFL teams that don’t draft him: “I’m going to give your defense hell if you don’t draft me” says it all. Guice is going to be the lone tier 2 back in this class leading up to the NFL Draft with his diverse set of skills. His ability to escape tackles and create his own fortune while running the ball wreaks havoc on opposing defenders."
Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia - @fntsyfbconnect "Nick Chubb may not be the flashiest pick in the draft but his body of work spoke for itself at Georgia. After coming off a devastating knee injury Chubb was able to evolve his game using outstanding vision and balance to become a fantastic runner. As he got healthier he only improved his game to become one of the most complete backs coming out."
Courtland Sutton, WR, Southern Methodist - @WazNFL "Courtland Sutton is a very solid wide receiver prospect with very few flaws and my pre-Draft WR1. It’s difficult to focus on the cream of the crop in a “weak” wide receiver class when the offseason blurbs and “scoutspeak” is enamored with the running backs. I would have taken Sutton 2nd overall if I was offered the chance, especially before knowing any of the prospect's landing spots. I get the D.J. Moore love, but I haven’t seen enough to lock him as the WR1 over Sutton. I also don’t get the fascination with Calvin Ridley and feel that he will continue to be overdrafted, but I’m happy to draft alongside those who are are pro-Moore and pro-Ridley because that allows Sutton to fall further in the first round."
Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State - @RobertFCowper "I fell in love with Penny throughout the season, writing about him numerous times. He needs work in pass pro and as a receiver but I am encouraged that an outsized portion of his production came against his best competition. DynastyER mock drafts typically give points for return yards which would help buoy his value early on if he didn't start right away."
D.J Moore, WR, Maryland - @DFF_Shane "Dominating physical profile? With a 123.18 Sparq-X score (91st percintile), I'd say Moore's athleticism is not a concern (slight understatement). With a breakout age of 18.4 years old and a dominator rating sitting in the 97% percentile, every measurable you can cite points to Moore being a standout in the NFL. Criticisim's include the need for Moore to refine his route running, which is a teachable asset. You can't teach raw athleticism though, and Moore has that in spades."
Sony Michel, RB, Georgia - @FntsyFxrRSO "I absolutely love what I've seen from Sony. This kid is the definition of an every down back. Standing at 5’11 220 lbs and as sure handed as they come i'm all in landing him at 1.07 is a steal."
Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama - @DraftUtopia "Ridley was my top graded receiver. This was a no brainer for me."
Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon - @GridironSchol91 "It is a running back Dynasty Draft, and I acquire my seventh ranked ball carrier."
James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State - @F3Pod "James Washington is a very talented WR. However there were some concerns with the combine and his route running. However this late in the draft I can see Washington developing those skills even further in the NFL. This place in the dracft I feel comfortable to take a chance on this talented of a WR. Placmement will be a future factor."
Ronald Jones, RB, USC - @ChiRuxinDFS "Was really hoping Royce Freeman would fall to me here. He is not as sexy of a name as Ronald Jones, but I had him ranked one spot higher. Essentially, I am not too upset though. Jones has some boom/bust potential. His landing spot will really make a difference in regards to his value. Whoever drafts Jones will have to find ways to get him in the open field. He is a slasher who can make defenders miss. It will be interesting to see how he holds up for a full season in the NFL though."
Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State - @DFF_CSmith "Goedert finished both his junior and senior seasons with over 70 catches, 1100 yards, and 7 TDs. At 6’5 255lbs, he has the speed to succeed. Curious to see where he lands after the NFL draft."
Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame - @DFF_CSmith "At this spot in the draft, I would’ve been happy with a few different guys, but ESB just stands out to me as the guy with the highest ceiling left. We can all agree that his QB (and offense as a whole) during his senior did him no favors. But at 6’5 214lbs and running a 4.48 40, he’s got the tools to be a big time player in the right system."
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M - @ChiRuxinDFS "I went Ronald Jones at 1.11 because there were three wide receivers I was okay with taking here at the 2.02. Kirk was first on my list of those three, but where they land will definitely play a part in the selection process. As a Bears fan, he was a guy I was hoping they would target if available in the Second Round. Kirk will primarily be a slot guy who will need plays that help him catch things underneath. He is competitive, but may struggle to find separation early on against NFL defenders. The offensive scheme he becomes a part of will be key on his success."
John Kelly, RB, Tennessee - @F3Pod "John Kelly is one of my buys this draft. He is a quick runner than models his game off Alvin Kamara. John Kelly will provide some back field a change of pace and catching ability. Allowing for tons of upside for owners that draft him in the top of the 2nd."
Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn - @GridironSchol91 "I'll go back-to-back runners with my eighth rated ball carrier in the second round."
Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State - @DraftUtopia "Ballage aced the Senior Bowl, Combine, and his Pro Day. This pick was a no brainer for me in the second round since he's aced every part of the draft process."
Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State - @FntsyFxrRSO "Michael Gallup is probably the most refined technician in this class. He's a little slow to have a truly elite ceiling, but he's the type of hard worker that likes to prove people wrong."
Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State - @DFF_Shane "Not going to lie I'm not over the moon drafting a TE this early. The issue I have is that Michael Gallup is the last WR or RB I'm comfortable drafting with at this spot. The chance of Gesicki hitting, even if it takes a couple of seasons, is greater than any running back or wide receiver I could draft in his place here."
Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis - @RobertFCowper "Miller is my favorite player in this draft. He makes the spectacular look routine and has an excellent release. I don't think he projects as a WR1 in the NFL but he'll be productive nonetheless. Whoever lands him will quickly find out they have a tough and highly motivated playmaker."
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville - @WazNFL "If you're drafting before the NFL Draft, I think it's vital that Lamar Jackson is the first quarterback off the board. Weed through the "scoutspeak" and differentiating tea leaves surrounding him, and focus on the possibility (a genuine and practical one at that) of Jackson being drafted as a starting NFL quarterback. Frankly put, if Jackson is a starting quarterback, he will be a fantasy QB1 and there should be no doubts about it. Rushing quarterbacks, and outstanding ones like Jackson, are goldmines in fantasy football. If it's before the Draft, don't play the "all other quarterbacks" landing spot carousel. Draft a fantasy QB1 as the QB1."
Mark Walton, RB, Miami - @fntsyfbconnect "Mark Walton has the skill set to make an immediate impact in dynasty as a receiving back with the upside to be more with the opportunity."
Auden Tate, WR, Florida State - @EricPlat2 "Tate was a massive disappointment at the combine with one of the slowest 40 times of the entire group. This doesn’t concern me all that though as I expect him to use his large frame and strength to make catches rather than speed. I expect Tate to primarily be a red zone threat in his first few years but if he can take the ankle weights off and progress as a route runner, I can easily see his ceiling go higher. In a class lacking a true WR1, Tate is someone I would take a late second round chance on due to his physical prowess."
Allen Lazard, WR, Iowa State - @RonnieAEvans "One of my absolute favorite players in this class, Lazard has the makeup to eventually take over the WR1 role at the next level. A tremendously physical presence at the point of attack, and a player with terrific body control, Lazard is an animal once he hits stage 2 of his routes. At 6’4 225+ he is surprisingly elusive. NCAA Record Holder for consecutive games with a catch, he should at worse be a solid possession receiver at the next level. NFL.com says “very little threat with the ball in his hands” which I found to be one of the dumbest takes I’ve seen this offseason. No, Lazard is not Odell Beckham in the open field, but that’s not his game? I’m excited to see what team he lands on in a few weeks."
Simmie Cobbs Jr., WR, Indiana - @RonnieAEvans "Cobbs has a fantastic frame, hands and prowess at the point of contact. That said, there’s no hiding from his disappointing combine scores, however he’s not built ot be a burner—he’s profiled, in my opinion, best as possession style threat on a team that already has their deep game covered."
Nyheim Hines, RB, NC State - @EricPlat2 "No debate here, I draft Hines because he is one of the best athletes of the entire skill position class in 2018. The ex track star is incredibly quick and has home run ability every time he touches the ball but will need to learn patience behind his offensive lineman."
D.J. Chark, WR, LSU - @fntsyfbconnect "DJ Chark has good size and ridiculous speed and explosiveness. While he had limited production at LSU it could be in part of the system which is why he's worth taking the chance on."
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma - @WazNFL "Baker Mayfield is a truly magnificent quarterback. There's nothing not to like about the way he plays the position and how well he plays it; he's dominated for years. I think the Browns would be foolish to pass on him with the first overall pick, but I've learned to expect poor non-analytical decision-making at the NFL level. While I feel that he is the tried and true QB1 of the Draft, he's the locked-in fantasy rookie QB2, but that's understandable considering the elite fantasy value of a rushing quarterback. Mayfield is a new breed of quarterback though, one that excels at everything required of the position--literally everything. I will continue to gush over him for a long time and you should too. In less than a year's time, those who have Mayfield rostered in dynasty will be both ecstatic and confident about their team's quarterback position for the unforeseeable future."
Dante Pettis, WR, Washington - @RobertFCowper "I think Pettis is being undervalued in dynasty circles. He was a four-year contributor on a Washington team that was in the championship picture multiple times. He's undersized but managed to play 52 career games without serious injury. In addition to being a productive receiver, Pettis holds the NCAA record for most career punt return touchdowns."
Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida - @DFF_Shane "If Callaway didn't have an extensive criminal record he would be no worse than the WR3 of this class."
Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma - @FntsyFxrRSO "Mark Andrews was, for many, the TE1 heading into this offseason. He's an elite talent and should be a solid NFL starter for years to come."
Justin Jackson, RB, Northwestern - @DraftUtopia "Justin Jackson was the only running back left that I could see being a future starter. I had to grab him with this selection."
Tre’Quan Smith, WR, Central Florida - @GridironSchol91 "One of my favorite Dynasty assets this season in Drafts."
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA - @F3Pod "Josh Rosen, for many, is the top QB in this class. He has almost everything you want in a QB prospect, and if he can shore up his work ethic concerns and add a few pounds to his frame, his concerns would be nonexistent."
Sam Darnold, QB, USC - @ChiRuxinDFS "Darnold is the number two QB on my draft board. He comes with risk, but I think he has the highest ceiling too. He has all the intangibles needed to be a great quarterback in the NFL. He is an accurate passer and tough both on and off the field. He is a natural leader and can make great throws. If Darnold can learn how to limit the turnovers, he has the ability to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback. This will depend on landing spot obviously. If the Browns take him first overall, he will be walking into a great opportunity to learn behind Tyrod Taylor and take over with solid weapons in 2019."
Chase Edmonds, RB, Fordham - @DFF_CSmith "Injuries held back the 2016 consensus first-team FCS All-American who had 1,799 yards (led FCS with 163.5 yards per game) and 19 touchdowns (ranked third) on 257 carries..."
DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Penn State - @DFF_CSmith "Don’t let the Saquon and Gesicki hype push Hamilton to the back of your memory."
Keke Coutee, WR, Texas Tech - @ChiRuxinDFS "I was on the fence between Keke Coutee and Deon Cain. Seeing Cain go two picks later means I was right to debate this pick. I ended up going Coutee because the guy reminds me of the likes of John Brown. Brown was supposed to blossom into a great NFL and fantasy asset, but his sickel cell anemia has derailed his career. Coutee doesn't have the health issue, but he has the hands and speed needed to succeed. Coutee will also contribute right away in the return game. If your league has any points for return yards, this boosts Coutee's value even more!"
Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame - @F3Pod "Adams is a bruiser from a big school, and while he is unlikely to ever contribute on third downs, he could secure a role in the NFL on early downs."
Deon Cain, WR, Clemson - @GridironSchol91 "I can't believe that my #8 rated WR still remains on the board. So pumped!"
Justin Watson, WR, Pennsylvania - @DraftUtopia "Justin Watson was arguably the biggest NFL Combine Snub. He ran a 4.43 40-time at Penn's Pro Day and did a 40-inch vertical too. The former South Fayette HS WR may be one of the sleepers in this class."
Jordan Lasley, WR, UCLA - @FntsyFxrRSO "I love his value this late in a draft. Always seemed to show up in big games."
Deontay Burnett, WR, USC - @DFF_Shane "Probably should have drafted Richie James here, but I didn't for some reason. Burnett had a fairly productive college career with USC, taking over a larger role in 2017 with JuJu Smith-Schuster's departure. Burnett has a slight frame, 6'0" 186 pounds, and needs to work on his physicality, but can make plays in the open field."
Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina - @RobertFCowper "Hurst started the year as my TE1. I bumped him behind Goedert and Gesicki but it's mostly a toss-up for me between the three. I think Hurst is the most complete player of the three at this moment but likely has the lowest ceiling. To get him as TE4 feels like a great value."
Jaylen Samuels, RB, NC State - @WazNFL "Jaylen Samuels is the rookie that I'm going to find a way to target and acquire in every one of my dynasty leagues. Sure, the odds of a team knowing how to either utilize his hybrid skill set or have the courage even to try are extremely thin. The thing is, at a grossly affordable RB16 price here, I'm absolutely going to bank on a team that knows how to and is willing to use him properly (preferably as a tight end who lines up as a wide receiver and running back 5-10 times a game) reaching for him in the Draft. With the limited pool of fantasy-relevant tight ends, I'll take the potential for high-end TE1 upside late in the 4th round any day of the week."
Richie James, WR, Middle Tennessee State - @fntsyfbconnect "Richie James has all of the makings of becoming a Ppr beast. He has good hands lightning quick feet and has some. Of the best run after the catch ability in the draft. Landing with the right team he could carve out a nice role."
Ito Smith, RB, Southern Mississippi - @EricPlat2 "Ito Smith is one of my favorite players in this entire class. He was one of the biggest snubs from the NFL Combine this year and has a fantastic pro day. He runs low to the ground, escapes arm tackles with ease, is incredibly explosive and powerful at the point of contact and is a pass catching weapon out of the backfield. Although he is on the small side, he doesn’t play like he is."
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Southern Florida - @RonnieAEvans "The size/speed freak from USF has landed on my team in dozens of draft already this season, and while I doubt he becomes an immediate threat in the NFL (He has a lot of technical refinement to work on), I have a feeling he’ll be a hot buy-low commodity near the end of his sophomore season."
Bo Scarbrough, RB, Alabama - @RonnieAEvans
Jaleel Scott, WR, New Mexico State - @EricPlat2
Roc Thomas, RB, Jacksonville State - @fntsyfbconnect
J’Mon Moore, WR, Missouri - @WazNFL
Cedrick Wilson, WR, Boise State - @RobertFCowper
Chris Warren III, RB, Texas - @DFF_Shane
Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming - @FntsyFxrRSO
Tyler Conklin, TE, Western Michigan - @DraftUtopia
Marcell Ateman, WR, Texas A&M - @GridironSchol91
Mike White, QB, Western Kentucky - @F3Pod
Trey Quinn, WR, Southern Methodist - @ChiRuxinDFS
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State - @DFF_CSmith
Troy Fumagalli, TE, Wisconsin - @DFF_CSmith
Ian Thomas, TE, Indiana - @ChiRuxinDFS
Kyle Lauletta, QB, Richmond - @F3Pod
Akrum Wadley, RB, Iowa - @GridironSchol91
Logan Woodside, QB, Toledo - @DraftUtopia
Korey Robertson, WR, Southern Mississippi - @FntsyFxrRSO
Kamryn Pettway, RB, Auburn - @DFF_Shane
Jake Wieneke, WR, South Dakota State - @RobertFCowper
Jarvion Franklin, RB, Western Michigan - @WazNFL
Jordan Wilkins, RB, Ole Miss - @fntsyfbconnect
Dylan Cantrell, WR, Texas Tech - @EricPlat2
Phillip Lindsay, RB, Colorado - @RonnieAEvans
Over the next five months, we will be conducting over dozens of more mock drafts like this with various experts from all over industry. If you got an smack to talk about these picks, tweet us @Dynasty_ER. If you are interested in participating in one of these mocks, head over to our home page and use the "All Other Inquiries" form at the bottom of the Contact Us section!
See you next time,
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